Let’s play a what if game, shall we?

According to a numerous reports, Senator Reid has caved to Senator Lieberman’s demands — NO public option, NO trigger, NO Medicare buy-in.

Senator Reid now needs 60 votes to pull the public option out of the bill. Will all the liberals, the Burris-Sanders-Franken-Brown-Feingold block of Senators, and perhaps others, vote to pull the public option out of the bill?

Burris and Sanders have said publicly they would not vote for any bill without the public option. They likely will not vote to pull the public option.

And will these liberals see from the way Senator Lieberman has whip-sawed the caucus and the White House that if they just hang tough, they can get what they want? In short, will these liberal Senators pull a Lieberman? My guess is they will, yes, they will threaten to vote against any amendment to pull the public option out of the bill.

My guess is also that the Dems would not believe them, and will force a vote to call their bluff. This is where it gets interesting, because the Republicans will have to vote to keep the public option in the bill, and the Dems would have to vote to pull the public option out of the bill. (BIG FUN). But the vote will likely come in the manager’s amendment — so it will not be that clear cut.

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To the Democrats, the ends justify the means to pass health care. Speaker Pelosi is widely rumored to have told an assembled K Street cognoscenti that she would sacrifice 30 Democratic House seats to get health care reform passed — and, of course, she said “We would do almost anything to pass a healthcare bill.”

The White House has convinced itself that it in the interest of all Democratic Members of Congress for ObamaCare to pass.

But the reality is that ObamaCare is a political failure, and therefore it is not in the political interest of Members of Congress to pass ObamaCare.

But the entire MSM, the White House, the House and Senate Dem Leadership, the majority of the Democratic Coalition and most of the outside factions of the Democratic Party’s coalition is pumping the airwaves and blogosphere full of their latest pack of lies and disinformation:

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ObamaCare joins the ranks of history’s spectacular man-made disasters…

Update: The New York Times is reporting:

“In a surprise setback for Democratic leaders, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, independent of Connecticut, said on Sunday that he would vote against the health care legislation in its current form.”

And on the issue of abortion, the New York Times was equally shocked by Senator Nelson:

“On a separate issue, Mr. Reid tried over the weekend to concoct a compromise on abortion that would induce Senator Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska, to vote for the bill. Mr. Nelson opposes abortion. Any provision that satisfies him risks alienating supporters of abortion rights.”

Meanwhile, this just in from the Huffington Post, Senator Lieberman told Senator Reid to his face this morning that he will vote against the Reid vapor deal:

“Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) informed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in a face-to-face meeting on Sunday that he will vote against a health care bill that includes a public option or a provision that would expand Medicare, a Democrat Senate aide tells the Huffington Post.

The two Senators had a discussion in Reid’s office shortly after Lieberman appeared on CBS’s Face the Nation Sunday morning. The Connecticut Independent discussed with Reid some of his concerns about the legislation, elaborating on issues he had raised during the show. According to the source, who was briefed on the exchange, Lieberman punctuated the discussion by telling the majority leader directly that he would vote against the bill if the Medicare buy-in and public option provisions remained in it.”

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Everyone in the country closely following the ObamaCare saga have been waiting for Senator Nelson (D-NE) to give us a sense of where he is on the bill since his abortion restriction amendment failed last week.

Yesterday, Senator Nelson — a long time pro-lifer — said:

“I can’t support cloture [ending the filibuster] on the next round,”

and that adds a second large monkey wrench in the Senate ObamaCare gears.

Monkey-wrench number one is the public option.

Monkey-wrench number two is Nelson’s statement above.

Monkey-wrench number three is any number of things that could rise to the level of a monkey-wrench, but are still in the small household pliers category. (The drug re-importation issue seems to be growing out of the pliers stage and into the monkey-wrench category.)

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Senator Carper (D-DE) has put a hold on Senator Dorgan’s (D-ND) drug re-importation amendment, who in turn, has objected to the Senate moving on any other health care amendments, until his pending drug re-importation amendment is voted on.

Got that? It’s a Dem on Dem cage match.

The Republicans, meanwhile, offered to stay in over the weekend and are now wishing they had not.

NOTE TO SENATOR MCCONNELL: If Senator Reid ever wants to let the Senators go home for the weekend before the cloture vote on the ObamaCare bill, agree (please).

Ultimately there will be a cloture vote on the Dorgan amendment, and this is where it gets very interesting.

No one knows where Senators are going to be on the vote.

If the yes votes exceed 51, which by all accounts they will, then the amendment cannot be tabled.

If the yes votes do not exceed 60 votes, then cloture is not agreed to. Then the amendment just sits there, burning time on the Senate floor, blocking any other action.

If the yes votes exceed 60 votes, then the bill is amended — and PhRma, the drug industry trade group freaks out, and the deal that they made with the White House to stop re-importation is in shreds. What PhRma does then is an open question. How can they pull the provision out of the bill? Or, do they oppose the bill and spend their millions to kill it? In general, it is grinding and nashing of teeth time for PhRma if Senator Dorgan gets more than 60 votes.

Given the tens of millions in ads that the drug industry has spent in support of the ObamaCare and it’s donations to the White House political arm — how do you think the Republicans are going to vote?

Do you think the Republicans are angry?

I am shocked that the Business Roundtable, having had their CEO egos stroked at the White House by the President, are now finding themselves on the short end of the stick with ObamaCare! How surprising! I would have never guessed that would be the outcome!

But after being used like a prop from central casting the Business Roundtable are finding the bill will hurt their companies.

Naturally, the Business Roundtable is trying — too late — to get some changes. Seems they just found out they’ve been had.

I wonder, does the Business Roundtable have 60 votes to change the bill on the Senate floor?

My guess is NOT — so, you Business Roundtable, have been used and abused. Did you know you needed 60 votes?

The Business Roundtable cannot just call up the Senate and have them change the bill. It is too late for that, and by the way, when your pals the Dems were behind closed doors, that’s when they went after you. But they did call you to apologize, right? (They were sooo sorry, but they could not do anything about it.)

Did the Business Roundtable really think that after giving all that political cover to the Dems, they would remember and fix the bill — when they have to convince their ultra liberal members to make changes to protect large corporations?

What planet was the Business Roundtable living on? I know, planet-I’ve-been-rode-hard-a-put-away-wet. Yes, that’s the one. You spell it: P-o-l-l-y-a-n-n-a, that is with a capital P.

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Well, now this is something. The New York Times is actually reporting the Dems still do not have 60 votes, even after Senator Reid’s much trumpeted vapor deal by the MSM (mainstream media):

“Democrats do not dispute that they still have not nailed down the 60 votes that will be needed to approve the health care measure.”

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ObamaCare is a political failure.

The polling data has confirmed it — repeatedly, but recently, the already bad polls have taken a radical drop. You see the average of many, many polls put together by Pollster.com and it is frightening that the Democrats are still desperately attempting to pass something Americans do not want.

ObamaCare’s political failure will lead to its legislative failure.

The only question is when. ObamaCare is a dog that won’t hunt. It won’t even get off the porch.

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The following is a block quote Gun Owners of America alert that went out to Kentucky on Friday, Dec. 4 — I was out of the country, but it is still relevant, given the article titled “Limbaugh vs. McConnell: GOP Leader Targeted by Conservative Groups,” in The Hill today.

Here is the GOA alert:

Anti-gun ObamaCare at a Crossroads
Passage or defeat will depend on whether Senate Republicans pursue a smart or stupid strategy

The spectacle on the Senate floor — in connection with the anti-gun ObamaCare bill — is disgusting. The Senate is debating socialized health care right now, and some Republicans may be ready to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

This alert is long, but it is necessarily so. Here’s the situation as it stands right now on the Senate floor:

* Harry Reid is pushing a $3 trillion bill with over $500 billion in new deficits. But he is trying to conceal the deficits with accounting fraud on a scale which would put anyone else in prison for the rest of his life.

* Reid’s bill would restructure the American economy in a way that has not been seen at any time during our lifetimes — but is being shoved down the throats of the American people before they can even comprehend the magnitude of the problem.

* Harry Reid took six weeks to write his legislation behind closed doors, but is trying to force the Senate to pass the bill in no time at all. FYI, the Constitution envisions an important role for the U.S. Senate in crafting legislation, but nowhere mentions Reid’s “secret” meetings to coerce and bribe senators.

“Okay, okay” you say. The fact that Harry Reid comes across as a lying politician is not news. But there is another problem: Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has adopted a losing strategy that will, unfortunately, help speed up the passage of Harry Reid’s anti-gun health care bill.

The Senate can do little without every senator agreeing to do it — or at least not objecting to its being done. Hence, you hear about “unanimous consent requests.” This means that every senator agrees to considering a particular amendment or, at least, to voting on it at a particular time.

The thing about these requests is this: They almost always make it easier for the bill to pass.

Hence, we are at the point where WE SHOULD STOP ALL UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENTS TO FURTHER REID’S HEALTH CARE FREIGHT TRAIN. And a single senator can do this by simply saying: “I object.”

But instead, Mitch McConnell has already started allowing amendments to be offered which will let the Senate Democrats “clean up” the bill … just enough to get it passed by the Senate.

We need to stop this sort of deal making. We need to stop these requests which grease the skids for Harry Reid’s freight train.

And, in particular, we don’t want to clean up this diabolical monstrosity. We want to kill it.

So our message? Kill the bill. Kill the bill. Kill the bill.

AND NO MORE UNANIOMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENTS TO FACILITATE THAT BILL’S PASSAGE.

We don’t want Mitch McConnell to try to make himself look good by pretending to be a “non-obstructionist.” We want Senate Republicans to move heaven and earth to protect Americans from Harry Reid’s scheme of bribery, fraud and dirty politics.

ACTION: Contact your two U.S. Senators. Tell them to object to any further Unanimous Consent agreements to further the ObamaCare freight train.

You can use the Gun Owners Legislative Action Center to send a pre-written message to your Senators — the appropriate e-mail will automatically be sent to your Senator, based on whether he is a Republican or Democrat.

—– Pre-written letter for Republican Senators —–

Dear Senator:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has agreed to Unanimous Consent agreements which allow for amendments to be offered to ObamaCare — a strategy that will, unfortunately, have the effect of providing Democrats just enough votes to “clean up” this anti-gun bill and get it passed.

We need to stop this sort of request which helps grease the skids for Harry Reid’s freight train.

And, in particular, I don’t want to see this diabolical monstrosity cleaned up in a way that makes the bill just “good enough” to get 60 votes. This bill would restructure the American economy in a way that has not been seen at any time during our lifetime. I want to see this bill killed outright.

So my message? Kill the bill. Kill the bill. Kill the bill. NO MORE UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENTS TO FACILITATE THAT BILL’S PASSAGE.

I don’t want Mitch McConnell to try to make Republicans look good by pretending to be “non-obstructionist.” I want Senate Republicans to move heaven and earth to protect Americans from Harry Reid’s socialist scheme.

Sincerely,

—– Pre-written letter for Democrat Senators —–

Dear Senator:

The spectacle on the Senate floor — in connection with ObamaCare — is disgusting:

* Harry Reid is pushing a $3 trillion bill with over $500 billion in new deficits. But he is trying to conceal the deficits with accounting fraud on a scale which would put anyone else in prison for the rest of his life.

* Reid’s bill would restructure the American economy in a way that has not been seen at any time during our lifetimes — but is being shoved down the throats of the American people before they can even comprehend the magnitude of the problem.

* Harry Reid took six weeks to write his legislation behind closed doors, but is trying to force the Senate to pass the bill in no time at all. FYI, the Constitution envisions an important role for the U.S. Senate in crafting legislation, but nowhere mentions Reid’s “secret” meetings to coerce and bribe senators.

Please oppose this diabolical monstrosity.

Sincerely,

And this too:

As third in line for the Presidency, and a woman to boot, if you were the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives would you say:

“We would do almost anything to pass a healthcare bill.”

OK, just wondering.

In a classic have-it-both-ways-moment, Senator Reid has been selling the media and the public the following story line: in a breakthrough deal we took out the public option, but its not dead.

Uh, huh. The deal that was supposed to buy off Senator Lieberman’s opposition to any form of a public option, did not kill the public option. So, if you don’t kill the public option, how do you get Senator Lieberman’s vote?

Perhaps if we look a the details of the Senator Reid’s “deal” we can understand it better. The New York Times, said this morning that “Mr. Reid refused to provide details” about this widely reported, alleged breakthrough.

Senator Reid has a deal — trust him — he just cannot tell you about it. Why can’t Senator Reid provide details? Because according to Senator Lieberman, “there is no legislative language.” Senator Lieberman said this morning:

“My opposition to a government-run insurance option, including any option with a trigger, has been clear for months and remains my position today.

“Regarding the ‘Medicare buy-in’ proposal that is being discussed, we must remain vigilant about protecting and extending the solvency of the program, which is now in a perilous financial condition.

“It is my understanding that at this point there is no legislative language so I look forward to analyzing the details of the plan and reviewing analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.”

This does not sound like a guy ready to sign on the dotted line.

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And all the kings horses, and all the kings men, couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty together again…OK, we aren’t there, yet.

But the left is starting to flex its muscles and are beginning to be annoyed, and really concerned about all the compromises that have been made thus far.

The pro-abortion forces know that there is a good chance the bill will not go to conference, where the leadership can change it at will. The first thing that would go would be the abortion restrictions — but having a House-Senate conference is not a certainty. The fastest way to the President’s desk, is to send the Senate bill directly to the House for an up or down vote – if it passes.

As you, dear reader know, I do not think the bill will make it past the Senate floor, but many on both sides disagree — pessimistic opponents and rose-colored-glasses-wearing-proponents. I am mentioning the “ping-pong” strategy of skipping conference because the pro-abortion forces cannot take the risk that Senator Nelson’s demands make it into the bill and the bill goes to the House, without going to (as they see it) the cleansing conference.

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What is happening in the U.S. Senate you ask?

A whole lot of old Senators giving long health care speeches.

But in the news today, the media discovered the, the (wait for it) — the filibuster.

Turns out that the Mikulski amendment — designed to give the pro-abortion forces in the U.S. Senate a victory — was, well, you know (it starts with an “a” and is seven letters and ends in a “ted.”)

And the pro-abortion forces take their second defeat, first Stupak in the House, and now Mikulski in the Senate. Going with the Mikulski amendment first (abortion) does show a whiff of fear on the part of Democrats, eager to placate that group of voters, which, of course, now has had the opposite effect.

It turns out it is really, really, really hard to amend this bill on the Senate floor (see link to NYT above.)

That means the Dems are going to find it impossible to pull the public option out of the bill, and making other changes to the bill to pick up votes will be equally difficult.

Will Senators Burris or Sanders vote to pull the public option out of the bill? Not likely, given that they have both said they will vote against any bill that does not have a public option. What about Senators Rockefeller and Franken?

And if the Dems can’t pull the public option out, then they will lose Senator Lieberman’s vote on the cloture vote on the bill, and it dies.

Then why are they still on the bill? Why are they antagonizing the public with their quixotic quest, while the economy burns?

Senator Reid is essentially in some sort of strange death dance, where he pours gasoline all over the Senate floor and prepares to self-immolate.

But the Dems cannot help themselves. They cannot stop themselves. They will keep marching, right off the cliff.

They should fold. They would lose less politically. That is what you do when you have a losing hand — especially if you’ve over played it — you fold.

But they won’t, yet.

The argument being made by former Democratic Party Chairman Dean is really pretty simple: the only health care reform in the Senate bill is the public option, and if the four moderate Senators kill the public option, then the bill should die. Senator Sanders, again, re-affirms his opposition to his any bill that does not have a public option.

Watch it here.

It is so important, it bears repeating:

“I’ll vote against any bill without a public option,” said Sen. Roland Burris, D-Ill.

The quote is from ABC News, and right before the Burris-bomb, is this little ticking surprise for Reid:

“There are at least two Democrats who say they’ll vote against any bill that does not include a public option, and there may be many more.”

Perhaps Senator Lieberman’s courage is contagious.

It does not feel like it, but we are winning the war against ObamaCare.

You may feel like the political system is broken and the Democrats are not listening to the voters. You feel that way because it is true, the Democrats are not listening. But that does not mean the bill will not die — because it turns out that the two Independent Senators are listening.

Clearly, the Democratic Senate leadership and the White House put so much pressure on the so-called moderate Senators to win this one vote to proceed to the bill, they created a political mirage that the bill’s chances are strong. But they are not. The bill is very brittle, and when it implodes, it will shatter.

As the bill stands right now, the Democrats cannot pass it. They cannot get to 60 votes on the vote to end the filibuster of the bill.

If they try to take the public option out, Senator Sanders and others (Burris, Brown and Franken) are threatening to vote against ending the filibuster. If they keep the public option in, then Senator Lieberman has threatened to vote against ending the filibuster. Either way — public option in or out — the bill dies. And Senator Sanders is not going to agree to any co-oped-trigger-opt-out compromise on the public option.

Is it any surprise that the two Independent Senators have put the Senate in this position? They are listening to the public, and are playing a role that no single Democratic Senator has the courage to play — you know, listen to your voters.

Turns out the moderates like Senators Lincoln, Landrieu and Nelson are now viewed by their voters as servants of Senator Reid and the White House. They destroyed all their work to try and get their voters to see them as something other than liberal Democrats who will just spend and tax and spend. This was the highest price Senator Reid paid to win the vote to proceed to the bill: he has forced the so-called moderate Senators look like lap-dogs.

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Senator Landrieu and Senator Lincoln have announced they would give their vote to Senator Reid and the White House to allow ObamaCare to the Senate floor.

For the group of U.S. Senators up in 2010 — the ones facing the independent voters that turned 2:1 against the Democrats in the New Jersey and Virginia elections — they will each be tagged all election cycle with providing the one vote needed for ObamaCare to come before the Senate. They could have stopped it, but they did not.

The vote on cloture on the motion to proceed needs 60 votes, and therefore every Democratic Senator and every Democratic Independent can be accurately accused of providing the winning vote for Senator Reid to proceed to the very unpopular bill.

This message, I am certain, will make it into campaign commercials in 2010.

Below is a list of the Democratic Senators up in 2010, and the email contact links for each of their offices:

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From a reliable staffer:

Phone calls are not going through at all now. Try calling my phone or any phone. It is not even the switchboard anymore. The entire Senate phone system has collapsed.

Keep melting the phones!